Sixty percent of voters polled preferred Clinton to Obama (24 percent). John Edwards, whose name remains on all West Virginia ballots, polled 4 percent, while 2 percent had no preference; 8 percent were undecided; and 2 percent refused a response.
Respondents said Clinton should stay in the primary fight and that she is not hurting the Democratic Party by staying in the race. Sixty-seven percent of likely Democratic voters said Clinton should stay in the race, regardless of what happens on Tuesday, and 24 percent said she should get out. Seventy-two percent said she is not hurting the Democratic Party by running in the remaining primaries, while 20 percent said she is doing the party harm.
Obama’s favorability (44 percent favorable - 41 percent unfavorable) was relatively low, compared to Clinton (70 percent favorable - 21 percent unfavorable).
West Virginia has voted Democratic in eight of the last 12 general elections, dating back to 1960, but these findings could indicate difficulties for Obama in 2008.
"Barack Obama may have to write off West Virginia come November," said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. "In 2000, Al Gore won seventy-two percent of West Virginia Democratic Primary voters and lost the state’s general election to George Bush by six percent; in 2004, John Kerry won sixty-nine percent of West Virginia Democratic Primary voters and lost the state’s general election to George Bush by thirteen percent. If Barack Obama can’t even garner thirty percent of West Virginia Democratic Primary voters, what does that say about the West Virginia general election?"
West Virginia Democratic voters’ party loyalty also is fragile. Asked what they would do if their first choice for the Democratic nomination lost, 40 percent of respondents said they would still vote for the Democratic nominee; 23 percent said they would jump parties and vote for Republican John McCain; 6 percent would vote for independent candidate Ralph Nader; 30 percent were undecided; while 2 percent refused a response.
West Virginia Democratic voters appeared to be in denial about the delegate projections. Asked who would be the next president, regardless of whom they personally supported, 31 percent said Clinton; 27 percent, Obama; 26 percent, McCain; and 11 percent were undecided.
In other Suffolk University findings, 51 percent of those surveyed said that Obama could beat McCain in the general election, while 29 percent said he could not, and 20 percent were undecided.
The Suffolk University bellwether of Mason County, which was a sister-test to the statewide survey, also showed a commanding Clinton lead of 65 percent, with Obama at 16 percent; Edwards, 3 percent; no preference, 2 percent; 10 percent undecided, and 5 percent refused a response. The Mason County, West Virginia, Primary returns have been in the correct order and within 5 percent of the actual statewide Primary results from both parties in years where an incumbent U.S. president has not been on the ballot.
The Suffolk University poll was conducted May 10 and May 11, 2008. The margin of error on the statewide survey of 600 is +/- 4.00 percent at a 95 percent level of confidence. All respondents from the statewide survey were likely voters in the May 13 West Virginia Democratic Presidential Primary. Marginals and 110 pages of cross-tabulation data will be posted on the Suffolk University Political Research Center Web site – http://suffolk.edu/college/1450.html -- on May 12.
The Suffolk University election predictor bellwether ID sister-test (400 contacts) was made May 10. There was an equal probability of contacting and interviewing registered voters of all party affiliations, provided that they identified themselves as likely to take a Democratic ballot on Tuesday. For more information, contact David Paleologos at 781-290-9310.
BOSTON – The Indiana bellwether area of Delaware County points to Hillary Clinton to win the Indiana Democratic Primary, according to election-eve research conducted by Suffolk University.
In the random-digit-dial selection of likely Democratic households, Clinton led Barack Obama 44 percent-to-37 percent, with 16 percent undecided and 3 percent refusing to respond. This 7-percent margin closely mirrors the 49-percent-to-43-percent-margin statewide Democratic poll released by the Suffolk University Political Research Center on the morning of May 5.
Although bellwethers are a developing science and are not designed to depict actual margins, they have been remarkably accurate in predicting outcomes.
The Center’s 2008 analyses were made using a new election predictor module employed successfully with the Democratic Primaries in New Hampshire, California, Massachusetts, Tennessee, Ohio and Pennsylvania and the GOP Florida Primary. It is based on a number of statistical indices, including statewide polling and bellwether geographic areas.
“We’ll be watching how Delaware County fares in today’s election,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. “Historical election trends have put Delaware County in the Indiana spotlight. We’ll know in a matter of hours whether this trend will continue in the 2008 election.”
The last two times a non-incumbent president was on a presidential preference ballot in Delaware County, in 1988 and 2000, the bellwether area mirrored not only the exact order of finish statewide, but was within 4 percent for the top three vote-getters in each major party.
Since the bellwether predictor module was incorporated as a sister-test to the Suffolk statewide polling, no actual election result has run counter to the statewide poll and the bellwether, when both tests have agreed. When the two tests disagree, the bellwether test(s) have oftentimes been more accurate.
On Jan. 29, 2008, the Political Research Center’s Florida bellwether, Hillsborough County, almost exactly matched the statewide Republican Primary results. On Jan. 8, 2008, the New Hampshire Presidential Primary bellwether towns – Kingston and Sandown – predicted a Clinton win in the Democratic Primary, while no other leading indicator in the country had Clinton winning. The bellwether analysis was also highly successful as an added statistical test to the statewide polls of Democratic voters in Ohio and Pennsylvania. The bellwether analysis was also used in both the 2006 Massachusetts Gubernatorial Democratic Primary and General Elections.
Suffolk University interviewed 361 likely Democratic voters from a randomly selected list of 5,000 residents of Delaware County, Ind. All phoning took place on Sunday, May 4, and Monday, May 5, 2008. There was an equal probability of contacting and interviewing registered voters of all party affiliations, provided that they identified themselves as very likely or somewhat likely to take a Democratic ballot on Tuesday. The execution of the identification interviews was by live telephone call. For more information, please contact David Paleologos at 781-290-9310.
See also, Delaware County Weighted Frequencies
Six percent of Democratic voters were undecided, and 2 percent refused a response. However, 38 percent of these likely Democratic voters -- which include registered Democrats, Republicans, members of other political parties and independents -- said they would vote for John McCain in November if their Democratic choice does not win the party’s nomination.
"It’s no slam-dunk, but Hillary Clinton is poised to win the Hoosier state, provided there aren’t some critical turnovers late," said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center.† "Although the margin appears to be single digits at this point, the outcome will hinge on high turnouts in Marion and Lake counties, which are crucial for Obama."
Despite Clinton’s lead, Obama was seen as more popular (58 percent favorable - 29 percent unfavorable) than Clinton (53 percent favorable - 36 percent unfavorable). In addition, slightly more voters said that Obama (35 percent) would be the next president, compared to 28 percent for Clinton and 25 percent for McCain.
Only 44 percent of Indiana Democratic Primary voters said that, if their choice lost the Democratic nomination, they would still vote Democratic. A considerably high 38 percent indicated they would vote for McCain, while 6 percent said they would vote for independent Ralph Nader, and an additional 11 percent were undecided.
"This 38 percent is one of several statistical signs that Republicans are meddling in the Democratic fray, knowing full well they will vote Republican come November," said Paleologos.
A majority (54 percent) cited the economy as the most important issue facing the country, followed by the war in Iraq (21 percent) and health care (12 percent).
In other Suffolk University findings, a plurality of Democratic Primary voters (48 percent) said they favored making the president’s tax cuts permanent, while only 33 percent opposed. Seventy percent of respondents rejected tax increases to help close the budget deficit gap, while 23 percent supported them.
In the race for the Democratic nomination for governor, Jill Long Thompson (35 percent) led Jim Schellinger (27 percent). Meanwhile, a whopping 36 percent still have not made a choice, suggesting that some of these undecided voters will vote Republican for governor come November.
The Suffolk University poll was conducted May 3 and May 4, 2008. The margin of error on the statewide survey of 600 is +/- 4 percent at a 95 percent level of confidence. All respondents from the statewide survey were likely Democratic Primary voters in the May 6 Indiana Democratic Presidential Primary. Marginals and cross-tabulation data will be posted on the Suffolk University Political Research Center Web site – www.suffolk.edu/college/1450.html -- on May 5. For more information, contact David Paleologos at 781-290-9310.
Suffolk University has selected a bellwether area in Indiana to call on the evenings of May 4 and May 5 as an added predictor module for possible election outcomes. This data will be posted May 6.
back to top^BOSTON -- Pulitzer-Prize-winning journalist Carl Bernstein and H. Thomas Wells, Jr., president-elect of the American Bar Association, will be the speakers as Suffolk University awards eight honorary degrees at its commencement exercises on Sunday, May 18, 2008, at the Bank of America Pavilion on Boston’s waterfront.
The Law School ceremonies will be held at 9:30 a.m., with Wells speaking, and Bernstein will appear at the College of Arts and Sciences and Sawyer Business School ceremonies at 2 p.m.
Carl Bernstein worked with fellow Washington Post investigative reporter Bob Woodward to uncover the Watergate cover-up that led to the resignation of President Richard Nixon. He is the co-author, with Woodward, of the best-seller All the President’s Men, which was made into a film, and The Final Days, an account of Nixon’s last days in office. His most recent book is A Woman in Charge, a biography of Hillary Rodham Clinton. Bernstein is now a political commentator and has been offering analysis of the 2008 election on CNN. He will receive the honorary Doctor of Journalism degree at the afternoon ceremony.
H. Thomas Wells Jr., will become president of the American Bar Association in August. He is a partner and founding member at Maynard, Cooper & Gale, P.C., in Birmingham, Ala. His practice is focused on complex environmental, toxic tort law and products liability litigation. Wells has served in leadership roles in the Alabama State Bar, the Birmingham Bar Association and the American Bar Association. He was co-chair of the ABA’s Special Committee on Disaster Response, established after the devastation of Hurricane Katrina and has served on the ABA Commission on the American Jury and its Commission on the Future of the Legal Profession. Wells will receive the honorary Doctor of Laws degree at the morning ceremony.
The following honorees will join Wells in receiving honorary degrees from the Law School:
The following honorees will join Bernstein in receiving honorary degrees from the College of Arts and Sciences and Sawyer Business School:
On Saturday, May 17, Suffolk University’s Graduate School ceremonies will take place. Joseph P. Campanelli will address the Sawyer School of Business graduate students at 10 a.m., Sheraton Boston, 39 Dalton St. Maxine Hong Kingston will address the College of Arts and Sciences graduate students at 1 p.m. at the Renaissance Boston Waterfront Hotel, 606 Congress St. Campanelli and Kingston each will be awarded honorary degrees at the afternoon undergraduate commencement exercises on Sunday, May 18.
BOSTON – The Pennsylvania bellwether area of Allegheny County points to Hillary Clinton to win the Pennsylvania Democratic Primary, according to election-eve research conducted by Suffolk University.
In the random-digit-dial selection of likely Democratic households, Clinton led Barack Obama 52 percent-to-40 percent, with 6 percent undecided and 2 percent refusing to respond. This closely mirrors the 52 percent-to-42 percent statewide Democratic poll released by the Suffolk University Political Research Center on the morning of April 21.
Although bellwethers are not designed to depict actual margins, they have been remarkably accurate in predicting outcomes.
The Center’s analysis was made using a new election predictor module first employed successfully with the New Hampshire Democratic Primary; the GOP Florida Primary; the Democratic Primaries in California, Massachusetts and Tennessee; and the Ohio Election Day results. It is based on a number of statistical indices, including statewide polling and bellwether geographic areas.
“A cautionary word or two: Past bellwether performance is a guide but not a 100 percent guarantee of future performance,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. “New bellwethers often are created every election cycle as people migrate and as development and geography-driven issues emerge. In addition, local endorsements from popular people can skew margins.”
The last two times a non-incumbent president was on a presidential preference ballot in Allegheny County, the bellwether area mirrored the exact order of finish statewide and was within 5 percent for the top three vote-getters in each major party.
A brief historical summary follows:
| Pennsylvania Primary | Allegheny County | Statewide |
| 1988 Democrat |
Dukakis 70% |
Dukakis 67% Jackson 27% Gore 3% |
| 1988 Republican | Bush 74% Dole 14% Robertson 12% |
Bush 79% Dole 12% Robertson 9% |
| 2000 Democrat | Gore 74% Bradley 22% LaRouche 4% |
Gore 74% Bradley 21% LaRouche 5% |
| 2000 Republican | Bush 74% McCain 22% Forbes 3% |
Bush 74% McCain 22% Forbes 3% |
|
4/21/08 Bellwether |
Clinton 52% Obama 40% |
Clinton 52% Obama 42% |
On Jan. 29, 2008, the Political Research Center’s Florida bellwether, Hillsborough County, almost exactly matched the statewide Republican Primary results. On Jan. 8, 2008, the New Hampshire Presidential Primary bellwether towns – Kingston and Sandown – predicted a Clinton win in the Democratic Primary, while no other leading indicator in the country had Clinton winning. The bellwether analysis also was an added tool used successfully by the Center for Political Research in both the 2006 Massachusetts Gubernatorial Democratic Primary and General Election.
Suffolk University interviewed 402 likely Democratic voters from a randomly selected list of 5,000 residents of Allegheny County. All phoning took place on Sunday, April 20, and Monday, April 21. There was an equal probability of contacting and interviewing newly registered voters, recent party-switch registrants and longtime Democratic households, provided those contacted were registered Democrats and intended to vote in the Democratic Primary on Tuesday, April 22. The execution of the ID interviews was by live telephone call. For more information, please contact David Paleologos at 781-290-9310.
back to top^BOSTON – Hillary Clinton (52 percent) leads Barack Obama (42 percent) among likely Pennsylvania Democratic voters, according to a poll released today by Suffolk University. Four percent of Democratic voters were undecided, and 2 percent refused a response. However, 20 percent of these likely Democratic voters said they would vote for John McCain in November if their Democratic choice does not win their party’s nomination.
In addition to the 20 percent of disgruntled Democratic voters defecting to McCain, another 4 percent would vote for independent Ralph Nader, and 20 percent were undecided about what they would ultimately do in November.
"Hillary Clinton’s projected win in Pennsylvania poses some serious problems for the Democratic Party at this point," said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. "First, it continues a bitter battle between the Democratic combatants; second, with 20 percent of core Democratic supporters fleeing to McCain, electability in November becomes a quantifiable problem; and third, it begs the question of who in the Democratic Party will become the ultimate peacemaker."
Nader’s 4 percent could potentially quadruple, as 17 percent of Democratic respondents said that if their first choice does not get the Democratic nomination, they may vote for Nader.
Asked who would be the next president, more Democrats picked Obama (42 percent) regardless of whom they personally supported. Thirty-two percent chose Clinton, and 14 percent chose McCain, with 12 percent undecided.
A majority of respondents (56 percent) said they watched the ABC televised debate, while 44 percent did not. Clinton was the apparent winner among those who watched the debate: 46 percent said they were most impressed by her, 26 percent indicated Obama, and 28 percent were undecided.
Democrats were mostly forgiving of the recent controversies surrounding Clinton and Obama. Forty-two percent indicated that Clinton’s Bosnia comment was just a mistake, while 25 percent said she exaggerated, and 21 percent said she outright lied. Nor did Obama’s bitterness comment have traction with likely voters. Thirty-two percent agreed that his comment showed he is out of touch with rural Pennsylvania voters, while 56 percent disagreed.
Clinton (42 percent) was seen as the candidate best equipped to solve the country’s economic troubles, followed by Obama (31 percent) and McCain (10 percent), with 17 percent undecided.
In other Suffolk University findings, 42 percent of those surveyed favored making the current administration’s tax cuts permanent, while 41 percent opposed. Yet, 27 percent favored tax increases to help close the budget deficit gap, while 65 percent opposed.
The Suffolk University poll was conducted April 19 - April 20, 2008. The margin of error on the statewide survey of 600 is +/- 4.00 percent at a 95 percent level of confidence. All respondents from the statewide survey were likely Democratic Primary voters in the April 22 Pennsylvania Democratic Presidential Primary. Marginals and 80 pages of cross-tabulation data will be posted on the Suffolk University Web site – www.suffolk.edu -- on April 22. For more information, contact David Paleologos at 781-290-9310.
Suffolk University is calling a selected bellwether area in Pennsylvania on the evenings of April 20 and 21 as an added predictor module for possible election outcomes. This data will be posted April 22.
BOSTON – Suffolk University presents A Changing World New England in the Photographs of Verner Reed, 1950-1972 at the Adams Gallery from April 21 through July 21, 2008.
Photojournalist Verner Reed captured the images of a rapidly expanding post-war economy in his work for Life magazine during the 1950s.
He recorded the transition as New England meadows were lost to encroaching suburbs, supermarkets replaced fruit vendors and butchers, and small farms gave way to agri-business.
Reed’s photographs of New Englanders employ warmth and humor in celebrating tradition, chronicling change, and revealing the wonder of a moment.
His photographs also were featured in national publications, including Fortune and Time, regional publications such as Vermont Life and in several New England newspapers.
A Changing World: New England in the Photographs of Verner Reed, 1950-1972 is a retrospective of his work, drawing from materials donated to Historic New England by the photojournalist and his wife Deborah.
A Changing World: New England in the Photographs of Verner Reed, 1950-1972
Organized by Historic New England, Boston, Massachusetts
April 21 through July 21, 2008
Adams Gallery, Sargent Hall, Suffolk University Law School, 120 Tremont St., Boston
Open to the public from 9 a.m. to 7 p.m. daily.
----
About Historic New England
Historic New England is the oldest, largest, and most comprehensive regional preservation organization in the country. It offers a unique opportunity to experience the lives and stories of New Englanders through their homes and possessions. For more information, visit www.HistoricNewEngland.org.
Suffolk University’s Adams Gallery presents exhibits on themes related to Boston history. Its location on the Freedom Trail, in the historic heart of Boston, makes it a natural site for exhibits of original materials or reproductions of importance in the chronology of Boston and New England. For more information, visit www.suffolk.edu/adamsgallery.
Contact:
Frank Conte
617-573-8050; 8750
fconte@beaconhill.org
BOSTON – Massachusetts business tax laws are a hodgepodge of poorly-conceived measures that violate the most fundamental principles of tax equity and efficiency. By taxing all business entities similarly and adopting unitary reporting, single-sales-factor apportionment, along with other proposed reforms, the Commonwealth could cut the corporate tax rate to 5.3% and achieve approximate revenue neutrality. The Beacon Hill Institute details these reforms in its new study, "Business Taxes in Massachusetts: Toward Fundamental Reform," released today.
BHI’s proposed reform would provide a stimulus to the state economy. The Institute predicts that its proposal would create about 4,000 new private sector jobs and $120 million in new investment upon implementation. The state would lose $86 million in revenue or about 0.41% of state tax revenue. David G. Tuerck, Executive Director of the Institute and a co-author said that “this tiny loss in revenue is well worth the economic stimulus and the tax simplification that the proposal would make possible.”
At 9.5%, Massachusetts currently levies the fourth highest statutory state corporate income tax rate in the United States. By reducing the tax rate and broadening the tax base, the BHI proposal would send a signal to the business world that Massachusetts is now a destination for adding plant and payrolls. The problem of corporate loopholes would disappear as firms found it in their interest to report income in Massachusetts rather than other states.
“Massachusetts should strive for a predictable and competitive business tax policy that serves firms, investors, workers and government in the most optimal manner,” said James Angelini, PhD, Director of the Master of Science in Taxation program in the Sawyer School of Business at Suffolk University and the lead author of the study. “A uniform rate covering a broader base would provide a stable source of revenue and promote economic growth.”
Specifically, the Institute proposes that the Commonwealth:
Against the tide of corporate tax avoidance strategies, the Commonwealth could strike a competitive blow by lowering rates rather than simply raising more revenue. “If they are expected to become viable sources of revenue in a volatile economy, business taxes must be reformed in a manner that promotes revenue stability, economic growth as well as equity, simplicity and transparency,” added Angelini.
On Tuesday, April 8, Suffolk University Law School will host the region’s first comprehensive overview and analysis of key public service provisions of the recently enacted College Cost Reduction and Access Act. This new federal law is designed to make it easier for graduates with high student debt to go into public service jobs.
The main presenter will be Philip G. Schrag, professor of law at Georgetown University and a leading expert on the Act. Schrag’s talk will include details on the magnitude of the federal loan forgiveness and Income Based Repayment (IBR) sections of the law and will guide users on how to calculate their benefits.
The College Cost Reduction and Access Act was signed into law last September, amid growing concerns about declining numbers of students pursuing careers in public service in the face of rising tuition and increased debt loads.
The Suffolk University Law School event comes at a critical time for students who are interested in public service, but are confronted with the financial reality of having to pay back exorbitant federal loans. It will offer a blueprint for how they can take advantage of the new public service federal loan forgiveness and income-based repayment provisions.
“A lot of people are not aware that this law is in effect and that they are potentially eligible for federal loan forgiveness that might influence their decision to enter into public service,” said Susan Prosnitz, executive director of the Rappaport Center for Law and Public Service at Suffolk University Law School. “This law affords important and substantial financial incentives to encourage individuals to engage in public service careers.”
When: Tuesday, April 8, from 8 to 10 a.m.
Where: Suffolk University Law School
120 Tremont St., Boston (First Floor Function Room)
Introduction & Remarks:
Dean Alfred C. Aman, Jr.
Daniel F. Conley, JD 83
Main presenter:
Philip G. Schrag, Professor of Law, Georgetown University
BOSTON – Many low- and moderate-income women have not reaped the full benefits of Massachusetts health care reform measures, according to an analysis by the Center for Women’s Health and Human Rights at Suffolk University. The report credits Massachusetts for its efforts to improve health coverage for all, but seeks changes to ensure equal access to health care for men and women.
Women in Massachusetts have greater medical expenses than men, while earning less than men. As a result, insurance programs that require substantial deductibles, co-pays and other forms of cost-sharing may put health care out of women’s reach, according to a policy brief written by Sociology Professor Susan Sered and students pursuing the Master of Arts in Women’s Health program.
Among the findings:
Massachusetts health care reform, designed to offer health insurance to uninsured, low-income people, was phased in beginning in summer 2006.
“While the law makes great strides in offering health care coverage to low and moderate-income people, it has not eliminated gender inequalities in the health care system.” said Sered.
The brief’s authors recommend that the Commonwealth Connector Board establish a committee of policy experts on women’s health and gender equity to monitor the impact of Massachusetts health care reform on women. Otherwise, they warn, women may be inadvertently disadvantaged by the very policies that are designed to help them.
“The need for a gender analysis at each stage of planning, implementation and evaluation is already apparent if Massachusetts health care reform is to live up to its promise of improving women’s health,” said Sered.
First Seminar to address "Competing in Beijing: China and the 2008 Olympics"
Barbara and Richard M. Rosenberg have made a $1 million gift to Suffolk University for the creation of an Institute for East Asian Studies, which will present its first seminar, "Competing in Beijing: China and the 2008 Olympics," on Tuesday, April 8, 2008.
Rosenberg is the former chairman and chief executive officer of Bank of America and a 1952 graduate of the College of Arts and Sciences.
The Barbara and Richard M. Rosenberg Institute for East Asian Studies will serve as the University’s lead platform for analyzing important major trends in East Asian culture, history, economics, and geopolitical alliances and initiatives.
The Institute will promote exchanges among scholars, business leaders, analysts, faculty and students through am annual seminar series addressing vital topics in the field.
The, "Competing in Beijing: China and the 2008 Olympics" seminar will begin at 11:30 a.m. Tuesday, April 8, at The State Room, 60 State St., Boston.
The seminar will take the form of an intensive conversation about the risks, challenges and opportunities presented to China and the world on the eve of these Olympic Games.
Seminar participants include:
• Keynote Speaker: Robyn Meredith, senior editor, Asia, Forbes
• Anders Bengtsson, assistant professor of Marketing, Sawyer Business School
• Michéle B. Corash, partner, Morrison & Foerster
• George Koo, director, Chinese Services Group, Deloitte & Touche
• Sandy Posa, former senior vice president of New Products, The Gillette Company
They will discuss China’s environment, economy, and marketing and consumerism.
For questions and to register, please contact Andrea Kerr at 617-573-8451 or akerr@suffolk.edu. Walk-ins are welcomed.
Celebrated Legal Scholar Focused on Law and Public Policy
Alasdair Roberts, a professor of public administration at the Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs at Syracuse University, will join Suffolk University Law School this fall as the first holder of the Rappaport Chair in Law and Public Policy.
“Alasdair Roberts is one of the leading scholars in law and policy studies in the country today,” said Suffolk Law School Dean Fred Aman. “His stellar accomplishments as a scholar and a teacher and his creative approach to law and policy issues will ensure that the Rappaport Center at Suffolk University Law School will play a leadership role in some of the most important law and policy issues of our times.”
In addition to serving on the Syracuse University faculty, Roberts is a fellow of the National Academy of Public Administration, and an honorary senior research fellow of the constitution unit at the School of Public Policy at University College London.
“I am deeply honored to have the opportunity to serve as the first Rappaport Chair in Law and Public Policy,” said Roberts. “Suffolk Law School has three great advantages: talented people, a tradition of public service, and a perfect location. It is the ideal place to have conversations about the intersection of law and public policy.”
Roberts previously taught in the School of Policy Studies at Queen’s University, Canada. He has held visiting appointments at Georgetown University’s Graduate Public Policy Institute and at the University of Southern California’s Washington Public Affairs Center. He has been a visiting scholar at the Council for Excellence in Government in Washington D.C., a fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington D.C., and an individual program fellow of the Open Society Institute in New York. He was director of the Campbell Public Affairs Institute at Syracuse University from 2001 to 2006.
Roberts’ book, "Blacked Out: Government Secrecy in the Information Age," received the 2006 Louis Brownlow Book Award from the National Academy of Public Administration and the 2007 Book Award from the Section on Public Administration Research of the American Society for Public Administration, among other honors. His new book, "Collapse of Fortress Bush: The Crisis of Authority in American Government," examines the Bush presidency in the larger context of recent U.S. history.
“His award-winning books have made significant contributions to the scholarly literature and concrete proposals on how best to cope with issues ranging from transparency in government to a proper balance of executive and legislative power,” said Aman.
Roberts, a native of Pembroke, Ontario, Canada, received his juris doctor degree from the University of Toronto Faculty of Law in 1984, a master’s degree in public policy from the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University in 1986, and a Ph.D. in public policy from Harvard University in 1994.
The Jerome Lyle Rappaport Chair in Law and Public Policy was established in 2006 as part of a $5 million gift from Phyllis and Jerry Rappaport and the Jerome Lyle Rappaport Charitable Foundation. The gift helped establish the Jerome Lyle Rappaport Center for Law and Public Service and provided permanent funding for the Rappaport Fellows Program in Law and Public Policy.
Vivan Pinn joins Distinguished Visiting Scholars program
Vivian W. Pinn, Ph.D., director of the Office of Research on Women’s Health at the National Institutes of Health (NIH), will return to Suffolk University as a Distinguished Visiting Scholar March 26-28, 2008.
“Her last visit to Suffolk in October 2006 was brief, but generated much enthusiasm among those who were able to meet with her and to hear her public presentation,” said Martha Richmond, professor of Chemistry/Bio-Chemistry. “We are fortunate that she is able to return for a longer visit.”
Pinn will meet with students, staff and faculty and deliver a public lecture on "The Role of Public Advocacy in the Evolution of the Science of Women’s Health" at 1 p.m. Thursday, March 27, in Sawyer 427/429.
She also will lecture on "Women and Biomedical Careers: Addressing Gender Bias and Barriers" at 1 p.m. Friday, March 28, in the Poetry Center, Sawyer Library, 73 Tremont Street.
A welcoming reception will be held for Pinn at 3 p.m. Wednesday, March 26, in the McDermott Conference Room.
At NIH, Pinn works with various institutes to coordinate research and develop programs that address women’s health issues. Prior to NIH, Pinn served as professor and chair of the Department of Pathology at Howard University College of Medicine, Washington D.C. She has held appointments at Tufts University and Harvard Medical School and served as the 88th president of the National Medical Association.
Pinn earned her B.A. from Wellesley College and her M.D. from the University of Virginia School of Medicine, where she was the only woman and person of color to graduate in 1967. She returned to Massachusetts to complete her postgraduate training in Pathology at Massachusetts General Hospital, also serving as a teaching fellow at Harvard Medical School. Pinn is a fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences and was elected to the Institute of Medicine in 1995.
She is the recipient of nine honorary degrees of law and science since 1992 and has received an Alumni Achievement Award from Wellesley College, the James D. Bruce Memorial Award by the American College of Physicians, the Athena Award from the Partnership for Women’s Health at Columbia University, and the Catherine McFarland Award from the University of Pennsylvania. In 1994, Cosmopolitan named her one of "The Big Time 8 (in feminism now) -- who got where only men got before," and in 2003, Essence magazine recognized Pinn as one of "50 Women Who Are Shaping Our World."
Pinn’s visit is the sixth in the spring line-up of Distinguished Visiting Scholars at the College of Arts & Sciences, a program launched in 2005 to bring nationally and internationally renowned scholars, artists and intellectuals to the Boston campus for stays ranging from one week to a month.
Suffolk’s Distinguished Visiting Scholars contribute to the creative and intellectual vitality of the entire University by teaching courses, leading workshops and roundtables, and delivering public lectures. The scholars also have numerous informal opportunities to interact, consult, and collaborate with members of the Suffolk community during their residency.
Additional information about the program, as well as the schedule of speakers for spring 2008, is available online, at http://www.suffolk.edu/college/385.html.
“Changing State Security Cultures: From Deterrence to Prevention”
Emil Kirchner, an international leader in the research and teaching of European and German politics and a professor of European Studies at the University of Essex, is a Distinguished Visiting Scholar at Suffolk University during March and April 2008.
During his stay, Kirchner is teaching a course on international security, delivering a public lecture and hosting an international conference.
His lecture, "The Lisbon Treaty: What Future for Europe?" will be held at 1 p.m. Tuesday, March 25, in Sawyer 427.
The day-long conference, "Changing State Security Cultures: From Deterrence to Prevention,” scheduled for April 18 in Sawyer 429, is open to the public, however seating is limited. Scholars from Canada, France, Italy, Germany, the United States, United Kingdom, Russia, Japan and Mexico will present their research.
Kirchner, the Jean Monet Professor of European Integration and coordinator of the Jean Monet European Centre of Excellence, is widely published in the areas of European security policy, European integration, EU decision-making, German politics and European interest groups. His most recent publications include EU Security Governance (with James Sperling); Global Security Governance: Competing Perceptions of Security in the Twenty-First Century (edited with James Sperling); and Europe in Change: Committee Governance in the European Union (edited with Thomas Christiansen).
Kirchner received the Cross of the Order of Merit of the Federal Republic of Germany for his outstanding service to Anglo-German relations in teaching, research and cultural activities.
Kirchner’s visit is the fifth in the spring lineup of Distinguished Visiting Scholars at the College of Arts & Sciences, a program launched in 2005 to bring nationally and internationally renowned scholars, artists and intellectuals to the Boston campus for stays ranging from one week to a month.
Suffolk’s Distinguished Visiting Scholars contribute to the creative and intellectual vitality of the entire University by teaching courses, leading workshops and roundtables, and delivering public lectures. The scholars also have numerous informal opportunities to interact, consult and collaborate with members of the Suffolk community during their residency.
Additional information about the program, as well as the schedule of speakers for spring 2008, is available online, at http://www.suffolk.edu/college/385.html.
Suffolk University will present a symposium on corporate governance and ethics, “From Enron to Refco: Assessing the Liability of Individuals, Companies, and the Professionals that Advise Them,” on Tuesday, April 1, 2008 from 4-6 p.m. at Sargent Hall, 120 Tremont Street, Boston.
“This symposium will raise important questions about the continuing occurrence of unrestrained greed and corporate crime in America and the impact on already shaky securities markets,” said Suffolk University Associate Professor of Business Law Miriam Weismann. “Areas to be discussed include the liability of companies, and corporate management – and their accountants, lawyers, and investment advisors – who together make crime pay at the expense of the public trust.
“In uncovering the problems, we hope to focus attention on the importance of ethics in corporate governance. As a business community, we must abandon the ‘wink and a nod’ mentality that buries ethical behavior below the corporate bottom line.”
Participating in the symposium are a distinguished panel of experts, including:
Joshua Hochberg, partner, McKenna, Long and Aldridge, LLP. He specializes in internal investigations and white collar defense. He is a former Acting U.S. Attorney for Enron investigations, and was a court appointed examiner in the Refco bankruptcy case.
James Rehnquist, litigation partner, Goodwin Procter, LLP. His expertise is in white collar criminal defense, including the representation of clients in SEC and other governmental and regulatory investigations.
John J. O’Connor, former vice chairman, PricewaterhouseCooper. He led the Assurance, Tax, and Financial Advisory Services areas for PwC, and is a client services partner for several of PwC’s largest global clients. O’Connor is a graduate of Suffolk University and a member of the Board of Trustees at Suffolk.
“The assembled panel of experts is utterly first-rate and will produce a provocative exchange on the issues that populate this unsettled legal environment, especially for those who must operate in the crosshairs of liability," said Suffolk Law Professor Joe Franco.
The symposium is sponsored by Suffolk University’s Sawyer Business School, Suffolk University Law School, The Massachusetts Bar Association, and Financial Executives International, Boston Chapter.
BOSTON – Ohio and Rhode Island bellwether communities are pointing to Hillary Clinton and John McCain as the respective winners in Democratic and Republican primaries, according to research on election eve conducted by Suffolk University and released today.
Two Ohio bellwethers – Morgan County and Greene County -- showed Clinton winning. Clinton led Barack Obama 63 percent-to-33 percent in the smaller Morgan County, and she led Obama 52 percent-to-41 percent in Greene County, almost exactly mirroring the 52 percent-to-40 percent statewide Democratic poll released yesterday. Although bellwethers are not currently designed to depict margins, they have been remarkably accurate at outcomes.
John McCain led Mike Huckabee 54 percent-to-29 percent in Greene County and 51 percent-to-34 percent in Morgan County.
The Center’s analysis was made using a new election predictor module based on a number of statistical indices, including statewide polling and bellwether geographic areas, first employed successfully with the New Hampshire Democratic Primary, the GOP Florida Primary, and the Democratic Primaries in California, Massachusetts and Tennessee.
“A cautionary word or two: Past bellwether performance is a guide but not a 100 percent guarantee of future performance,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. “New bellwethers oftentimes are created as people migrate, depending on the election cycle, the candidates and local endorsements.”
In Rhode Island’s bellwether, Providence County, Clinton led Obama 50 percent-to-36 percent while McCain topped Huckabee 61 percent-to-32 percent.
For Rhode Island, the Suffolk University Political Research Center’s Providence County matched the same statistical test: The last two times a non-incumbent was on a presidential preference ballot in Providence County, the bellwether area mirrored the exact order of finish statewide and was within 4 percent for the top three vote-getters in each party.
A brief historical summary follows:
| Primary | Providence County | Statewide Rhode Island |
|
1988 |
Dukakis 70 percent Jackson 15 percent Other 15 percent |
Dukakis 70 percent Jackson 15 percent Gephardt 15 percent |
| 1988 Republican |
Bush 66 percent Dole 20 percent Kemp 14 percent |
Bush 65 percent Dole 23 percent Kemp 12 percent |
| 2000 Democrat |
Gore 56 percent Bradley 42 percent Uncommitted 1 percent |
Gore 57 percent Bradley 41 percent Uncommitted 2 percent |
| 2000 Republican |
McCain 61 percent Bush 33 percent Keyes 5 percent |
McCain 60 percent Bush 36 percent Keyes 3 percent |
| 2008 Bellwether Democrat |
Clinton 50 percent Obama 36 percent |
|
| 2008 Bellwether Republican |
McCain 61 percent Huckabee 32 percent |
On Jan. 29, 2008, the Political Research Center’s Florida bellwether, Hillsborough County, almost exactly matched the statewide Republican Primary results. On Jan. 8, 2008, the New Hampshire Presidential Primary bellwether towns – Kingston and Sandown – predicted a Clinton win in the Democratic Primary, while no other leading indicator in the country had Clinton winning. The bellwether analysis also was an added tool used successfully by the Center in both the 2006 Massachusetts Gubernatorial Democratic Primary and general election.
Suffolk University interviewed 300 likely voters from each of the three counties. A random select of all available registered voters with phone numbers was used as the core sample, which did not include newly registered voters. The execution of the identification interviews was by live telephone call. For more information, contact David Paleologos at 781-290-9310.
Findings to Be Featured in New Book PARTY CRASHING: How the Hip-Hop Generation Declared Political Independence
BOSTON -- A survey by the Suffolk University Political Research Center reveals a significant decline in partisanship among black Americans, a development that could have profound implications on the 2008 presidential election.
The study reveals that 35 percent of respondents ages 18-24 identified themselves as independents, while 41 percent of respondents ages 18-45 identified themselves as "politically independent” even though they are registered Democrats.
Young, black independents are emerging as a potentially crucial swing voting bloc in 2008 with the likely GOP nominee, John McCain widely known for his ability to attract independent voters and Democrats Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama locked in a contentious primary battle,
Twenty-five percent of respondents said that Obama’s candidacy would make them more likely to vote in the presidential election.
The survey was commissioned and co-written by political analyst Keli Goff and will be featured in her forthcoming book PARTY CRASHING: How the Hip-Hop Generation Declared Independence. The research focused exclusively on the demographic of young black Americans born after the civil-rights movement.
The Suffolk University Political Research Center conducted telephone interviews of young black Americans ages 18-45 years of age from Atlanta and Los Angeles in May 2007, asking questions about issues as diverse as politics and hip-hop. The responses were totaled and analyzed based on area, gender, age, political philosophy and other indicators.
On the subject of black leadership, a majority of respondents (51 percent) said that they do not believe in the need for a “black leader.” They did say that they most value the opinions of Barack Obama (20 percent), Oprah Winfrey (20 percent) and Colin Powell (15 percent). An overwhelming majority, (72 percent) said that they do not believe that noted black leaders Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton speak for them.
Those polled cited the war in Iraq (26 percent) as the most important political issue of the day, followed by health care (13 percent), economic inequality (12 percent) and family values/morals (12 percent). Though an option, racial inequality was not selected by a significant number of respondents.
Although respondents were mostly registered Democrats or Democratic leaning, a majority (51 percent) said that neither political party was addressing their issues. Additionally, 32 percent of respondents said that they do not believe “that the Democratic Party works as hard to earn the support of black voters as it does to earn the support of other groups of voters.”
On the subject of class, a resounding majority (80 percent) of respondents agreed with Bill Cosby’s controversial comments regarding the issue of personal responsibility in the black community.
When asked about the government’s inadequate response to Hurricane Katrina, 22 percent of respondents said residents’ race was the defining factor; 22 percent said the response was determined by the class status of the residents; 23 percent blamed government incompetence; and 25 percent said all of the above.
PARTY CRASHING: How the Hip-Hop Generation Declared Independence features interviews with prominent leaders such as Colin Powell, Russell Simmons, the Rev. Al Sharpton, Mayor Cory Booker, Congressman Artur Davis, NAACP Chair Julian Bond and Ken Mehlman, former chair of the Republican National Committee. It explores the cultural and political divide between black Americans of the civil rights generation and their children and grandchildren, known collectively as "the hip-hop generation."
“Suffolk University is so pleased to be associated with the upcoming book Party Crashing,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. "Goff recognizes there is a whole new generation of black voters who are declaring their political independence. With the 2008 Democratic nomination up for grabs between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, the timing couldn’t have been scripted more brilliantly.”
The Suffolk University poll was conducted from May 14 to May 31, 2007, with results embargoed until the release of the book. The margin of error is +/- 4.90 percent at a 95 percent level of confidence. The 400 respondents were young black Americans 18-45 years of age from Atlanta (200) and Los Angeles (200). Each subset of 200 carries a margin of error of +/- 6.93 percent at a 95 percent level of confidence. Suffolk University is scheduled to release 196 pages of cross-tabulation data on its Political Research Center Web site -- www.suffolk.edu/college/1450.html -- on March 4, 2008. For more information about the poll, contact Suffolk University adjunct professor David Paleologos at 781-290-9310.
BOSTON – Hillary Clinton (52 percent) leads Barack Obama (40 percent) among likely Democratic voters in Ohio, according to a poll released today by the Suffolk University Political Research Center. Four percent of voters were undecided, and an additional 4 percent refused to state their choices.
“Hillary Clinton may be carried to victory on the backs of the Buckeye State’s older white males," said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. "Although Clinton carried women and Obama carried men overall, it appears that Obama’s weak support from older men may make the difference. And while the poll’s subset of African-American voters is relatively small, Obama beats Clinton by a lopsided margin. The race is down to who can turn out their core base of support on Election Day.”
Clinton led Obama among women (60 percent-to-31 percent), voters ages 66 and up (57 percent-to-34 percent), northeast Ohio (63 percent-to-31 percent) and among those who had already voted (67 percent-to-13 percent).
Obama’s strength was highest among voters ages 18-35 years (73 percent-to-18 percent), African-American voters (75 percent-to-19 percent), independents/other parties (62 percent-to-21 percent) and the Cincinnati/Dayton area (62 percent-to-32 percent).
Clinton also carried the Columbus/Southeast area (57 percent-to-32 percent) and the Toledo/Northwest area (50 percent-to-41 percent), while the two candidates ran dead even (46 percent-to-46 percent) in Cuyahoga county.
Despite Clinton’s support in Ohio, more Democratic Ohioans believe the electoral deck is stacked against her long term. When asked, regardless of their personal choice, who they believed will be the next president, 39 percent said Obama; 30 percent Clinton; 14 percent indicated Republican John McCain; and 15 percent were undecided.
Independent candidate Ralph Nader could receive support from up to 13 percent of likely Democratic voters in Ohio in the November General Election. Two percent of likely Democratic voters said they were planning to vote for Nader in November; 11 percent said that if their choice (either Clinton or Obama) didn’t win the Democratic nomination, they might vote for Nader; and 78 percent said that they would not vote for Nader under any circumstances.
“With Ohio decided by a handful of points every four years, Democrats cannot afford to let key voters fall through the cracks,” said Paleologos.
In other Suffolk University findings, the economy (54 percent) was the most important issue to Ohio Democratic voters, followed by the war in Iraq (21 percent), and health care (15 percent).
On March 4, Suffolk University will release its bellwether tracking in Ohio from Sunday and Monday night field calling. Suffolk University bellwether tracking predicted the Democratic Primary win of Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire and has correctly predicted outcomes in Florida, Massachusetts, California and Tennessee this presidential election cycle.
The Suffolk University poll was conducted Saturday, March 1, through Sunday, March 2, 2008. The margin of error on the statewide survey of 400 is +/- 4.90 percent at a 95 percent level of confidence. All respondents from the statewide survey were likely Democratic voters in the March 4 Ohio Presidential Primary. Frequencies/marginals and 64 pages of cross-tabulation data will be posted on the Suffolk University Political Research Center Web site -- http://www.suffolk.edu/college/1450.html -- on March 4. For more information, contact David Paleologos at 781-290-9310.
BOSTON – Suffolk University will officially open its new, street-level television studio at 5:30 p.m. Monday, Feb. 25 at 73 Tremont St.
The studio will be the setting for television production and broadcast journalism classes within the Communication and Journalism Department, and streaming video panels at the base of its window panels will enliven the streetscape.
“The University is acutely aware of the importance of an active street life that promotes pedestrian traffic,” said Vice President for External Affairs John Nucci. “Passers-by will be attracted by the video displays, and they will be able to watch the operation of the TV studio through the storefront windows along Tremont Street.”
The 666-square-foot studio is equipped with three high-definition digital cameras, a full lighting grid and a state-of-the-art control room.
“Our new television studio, which we are calling “Studio 73,” will enable our students to receive state-of-the-art instruction in television studio production,” said Associate Professor Robert Rosenthal, chair of the Communication and Journalism department. “It also provides an exciting venue for our ‘Temple Street’ television program, and we plan to produce Suffolk University newscasts and a sports show.”
“Temple Street,” which is broadcast on Boston Cable Access (BNN), produces features on Suffolk University and the Boston community, focusing on Beacon Hill and downtown.
The studio also will be used to conduct broadcast television interviews with local business, political, sports and cultural leaders.
Senegal’s Former Minister of Education has Long Association with West African Campus
BOSTON -- President David J. Sargent has announced the appointment of Andre Sonko as managing director of the Suffolk University Dakar campus.
Sonko, a former Minister of Education in Senegal who has served as a special consultant on higher education to the Senegalese president, will direct the University’s Dakar campus, which was founded in 1999 as an American-Senegalese cooperative venture.
In addition to serving as Minister of Education, Sonko has been director of Senegal’s Office of Government Studies; chief of staff for the prime minister; Minister of Labor, Employment and Public Affairs; and Minister of Internal Affairs.
“Andre Sonko has been an indispensable resource and ally as Suffolk University established the first and only full-service American campus in West Africa,” said University President David J. Sargent. “His unwavering commitment to education will be a great benefit to the students, faculty and staff in Dakar and an inspiration to everyone within the University community.”
Sonko is president of the S.O.S. – Sahel Senegal and a member of Caritas Senegal and the orientation council of the Aspen Institute of France. He is a knight in the Order of Merit of Senegal, a knight of the Malta Order, an officer of the Legion of Honor, commander of Academic Palms of France and Senegal, and commander of the National Order of Korea.
He holds a master of science degree with distinction in economics from the University of Dakar in Senegal and a master of business administration degree from the University of California, Los Angeles. Suffolk University awarded him an honorary doctor of humane letters degree in 2001.
BOSTON -- Suffolk University’s Sawyer Business School and Poland’s Cracow University of Economics will sign an agreement formalizing their cooperation and collaboration in the areas of research, faculty and student exchange, and international seminars.
The signing ceremony will take place at 11:30 a.m. Wednesday, Feb. 20, 2008, at 73 Tremont St., Boston, 13th floor.
Cracow University of Economics was founded in 1925. It offers undergraduate and post-graduate programs in Economics and International Relations, Finance, Management and Commodity Sciences and has partnerships with universities throughout Europe
President David J. Sargent will meet with the rector of Cracow University of Economics, Professor Ryszard Borowiecki; Professor Janusz Teczke, vice-rector for Scientific Research and International Cooperation; and Dr. Piotr Buta, director of the School of Entrepreneurship and Management for the signing ceremony, followed by a press availability at noon.
“We see Poland as an important bridge between the established markets of North America and Western Europe and the emerging markets of Eastern Europe.” said Sawyer Business School Dean William J. O’Neill, Jr. “This collaboration is of significant value, for the faculty of both schools, and for the preparation of our students to become successful leaders in global business.”
“Two highly rated institutions working together guarantees success,” said Borowiecki. “Cracow University of Economics is one of the top business schools in Poland.”
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BOSTON – With Super Tuesday upon us, Massachusetts bellwether communities are pointing to Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney as the respective winners in Democratic and Republican primaries in Massachusetts, according to research on election eve conducted by 7NEWS/Suffolk University and released today.
Three Massachusetts bellwethers - Waltham, Stoneham and Nahant - showed Clinton winning. In Waltham, Clinton led Obama 46 percent-to-42 percent, and in Stoneham/Nahant Clinton led 54 percent-to-41 percent, although in the small Nahant subset Obama and Clinton were tied.
The Center’s analysis was made using a new election predictor module based on a number of statistical indices, including statewide polling and bellwether geographic areas, first employed successfully with the New Hampshire Democratic Primary and followed up with the GOP Primary in Florida.
“We’ve seen this same trend before,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. “Our New Hampshire poll had a statistical dead heat, while both New Hampshire bellwethers, Kingston and Sandown, showed Clinton winning. We have a similar statistical dead heat in our statewide poll, but all three bellwethers show a similar Clinton trend. Will history repeat itself?”
The Suffolk University Political Research Center’s Massachusetts bellwethers matched the same statistical test: The last two times a non-incumbent was on a presidential preference ballot in Massachusetts, the bellwether area mirrored the exact order of finish statewide and was within 4 percent for the top three vote-getters in each party.
“A cautionary word or two: Past bellwether performance is a guide but not a 100 percent guarantee of future performance,” said Paleologos. “In a race this close, anything can happen. New bellwethers oftentimes are created as people migrate, depending on the election cycle, the candidates and local endorsements.”
The statewide poll ran Friday night through early morning on Super Bowl Sunday and may not have included organizational momentum gained by the Clinton forces over the past two days.
A brief historical summary follows:
| Primary | Percent -- Waltham | Percent -- Mass. |
| 1988 |
Dukakis 57 |
Dukakis 57 Jackson 18 Gephardt 10 |
| 1988 | Bush 58 Dole 27 Kemp 8 |
Bush 57 Dole 26 Kemp 7 |
| 2000 | Gore 59 Bradley 37 |
Gore 59 Bradley 37 |
| 2000 | McCain 66 Bush 30 Keyes 2 |
McCain 64 Bush 32 Keyes 3 |
| 2008 Bellwether |
Clinton 46 Obama 42 |
In other bellwethers, Tennessee’s Knox County showed Clinton leading Obama 52 percent-to-42 percent in the Democratic Primary, while John McCain led Mike Huckabee 46 percent-to-26 percent.
In California’s bellwether Fresno County, Clinton led Obama 50 percent-to-28 percent, while Romney led McCain 41 percent-to-26 percent, with significant numbers of voters still undecided or intended/already cast for other candidates.
On Jan. 29, 2008, the Political Research Center’s Florida bellwether, Hillsborough County, almost exactly matched the statewide Republican Primary results. On Jan. 8, 2008, the New Hampshire Presidential Primary bellwether towns – Kingston and Sandown – predicted a Clinton win in the Democratic Primary, while no other leading indicator in the country had Clinton winning. The bellwether analysis also was an added tool used successfully by the Center in both the 2006 Gubernatorial Democratic Primary and the General Election in Massachusetts.
7NEWS/Suffolk University interviewed 315 Democratic likely voters and 119 likely Republican voters from Waltham and 380 Democratic voters and 192 Republican voters from Nahant and Stoneham. In addition, 1,168 likely primary voters from bellwether Knox County, Tenn., were interviewed through Feb. 1. Finally, in California’s bellwether, Fresno County, 520 likely Democratic voters and 421 Republicans were interviewed through Feb. 1. A random sample of all available registered voters with phone numbers was used to select the sample, which did not include newly registered voters. The execution of the ID interviews was by live telephone call. For more information, please contact David Paleologos at 781-290-9310.
BOSTON – Barack Obama (46 percent) leads Hillary Clinton (44 percent) by a razor-thin margin among likely Democratic voters, according to a poll released today by 7NEWS/Suffolk University. Seven percent of Democratic and independent voters were undecided. However, 27 percent of Democratic voters and 24 percent of Republican voters say they may change their minds before tomorrow.
The recent Kennedy endorsement is a key factor for Obama overall. Asked to size up the impact of three endorsements for Obama and Clinton, Democratic respondents cited Sen. Edward M. Kennedy’s endorsement of Obama (43 percent) as the most influential, followed by Bill Clinton’s of his wife (23 percent) and Oprah Winfrey’s of Obama (9 percent).
"The Bay State’s senior senator Ted Kennedy clearly has more clout in Massachusetts than the popular former president, Bill Clinton," said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. "Add to that the backing of Senator Kerry and Governor Patrick, with the resonant message of change as well as the Kennedy call for ’a new generation of leadership’ and you have the reason why what was once Clinton country has become an Obama opportunity -- and a political choice between the nostalgic and the new."
Obama was strong among men (49 percent-to-30 percent), independents (43 percent-to-35 percent), in Middlesex & Essex counties (46 percent-to-36 percent) and among voters ages 18-45 years (55 percent-to-31 percent). Clinton’s areas of strength contrasted sharply with Obama’s: She led among women (52 percent-to-35 percent), in the Worcester/West area (52 percent-to-34 percent) and among voters ages 66 years and up (59 percent-to-26 percent).
“If young voters, men and independents turn out for Obama, he will win," said Paleologoas. "If older voters and women dominate the Democratic Primary as they did in neighboring New Hampshire, then it’s Clinton’s for the taking. But at this point every precinct counts, and there’s no room for a tactical mistake on Election Day.”
On the Republican side, Mitt Romney (50 percent) leads John McCain (37 percent), with Mike Huckabee (4 percent) and Ron Paul (3 percent) trailing. Six percent were undecided.
“Mitt Romney can thank Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul for helping to split the anti-Romney vote in Massachusetts," said Paleologos. "Without them, this race would be much closer."
Romney bested McCain on topics such as who would do a better job on the economy (Romney 62 percent-McCain 23 percent), on health care (Romney 51 percent-McCain 26 percent), and "improving my life" (Romney 49 percent-McCain 25 percent). However, McCain was seen as the better of the two on the topic of keeping us safe (McCain 43 percent-Romney 36 percent).
Primary voters were split on whether or not they are better off today than they were eight years ago. Only 35 percent of Democratic voters answered yes to this question, while 59 percent said no. However, on the Republican side, 62 percent indicated they are better off since the year 2000, while 32 percent said they are not.
Asked who would be the next president, the combination of Democrats and Republicans picked Hillary Clinton (27 percent) regardless of whom they personally supported. She was followed by Barack Obama (25 percent), John McCain (21 percent) and Mitt Romney (10 percent).
The 7NEWS/Suffolk University poll was conducted Friday, Feb. 1, through Sunday, Feb. 3, 2008. The margin of error on each party’s statewide survey of 400 is +/- 4.90 percent at a 95 percent level of confidence. All respondents from the statewide survey were likely primary voters in the Massachusetts Presidential Primary on Feb. 5. Marginals and 265 pages of cross-tabulation data will be posted on the Suffolk University Political Research Center Web site – www.suffolk.edu/college/1450 html -- on Feb. 4. For more information, contact David Paleologos at 781-290-9310.
7NEWS/Suffolk University will be calling selected bellwether communities in Massachusetts on the evening of Feb. 4 as an added predictor module for possible election outcomes.
BOSTON – Barack Obama (40 percent) leads Hillary Clinton (39 percent) by the thinnest of margins among likely Democratic voters, according to a poll released today by the Suffolk University Political Research Center. A crucial 19 percent of Democratic and independent voters were undecided.
“If young voters, men and independents show up, it is Obama’s prize,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. “If lots more women and older voters dominate, then it’s Clinton’s for the taking. Fasten your seat belts.”
Obama’s strengths were highest among men (45 percent-to-30 percent), in the Los Angeles area (45 percent-to-36 percent), Bay area (45 percent-to-39 percent) and among voters ages 18-45 years (49 percent-to-32 percent). Clinton’s strengths sharply contrasted Obama’s, as she led him among women (47 percent-to-35 percent), Orange County (44 percent-to-30 percent), the South area of the state (42 percent-to-31 percent) and voters ages 66 years and up (45 percent-to-28 percent).
The recent Kennedy endorsement seems to be a key factor for Obama overall. When Democratic respondents were asked to size up the impact of three endorsements to Obama and Clinton, the Ted Kennedy endorsement for Obama (34 percent) was cited as the most influential, followed by Bill Clinton for his wife (23 percent) and Oprah Winfrey for Obama (19 percent).
Upon closer examination of the undecided voters, the poll reveals that older (white) men - especially from households with veterans - had the highest undecided rate. Of that group, more than 30 percent said they were still undecided, compared to 19 percent undecided overall statewide. Among older men who have decided, Clinton led Obama by a 34 percent-to-27 percent margin.
“The high number of undecided older male voters reflects what is apparently still an open question looming over the Democratic presidential nomination fight: whether to choose a brand of leadership that’s new or nostalgic,” said Paleologos. “It’s a classic case of clash in identity politics. The question is: Which characteristic will take precedence with these voters – gender, favoring Obama, or their age, favoring Clinton.”
Obama was the debate winner, according to the poll. Thirty-three percent of likely voters said they were most impressed by Obama, while 29 percent said Clinton. However, only 46 percent of respondents statewide said they watched the Thursday-night debate at the Kodak Theatre, while 54 percent said they did not.
Asked who would be the next president, those surveyed predicted Hillary Clinton (35 percent) regardless of whom they personally supported. She was followed by Barack Obama (22 percent) and John McCain (13 percent).
In other Suffolk University findings, the economy (41 percent) was the most important issue to California Democratic voters, followed closely by the war in Iraq (30 percent), and health care (12 percent).
The Suffolk University poll was conducted Friday, Feb. 1, through Sunday, Feb. 3, 2008. The margin of error on the statewide survey of 700 is +/- 3.70 percent at a 95 percent level of confidence. All respondents from the statewide survey were likely Democratic voters in the California Presidential Primary on Feb. 5. Frequencies/marginals and 80 pages of cross-tabulation data will be posted on the Suffolk University Political Research Center Web site – www.suffolk.edu/research/18108.html -- on Feb. 4. For more information, contact David Paleologos at 781-290-9310.
BOSTON – On the heels of a Florida win and recent endorsements from former presidential candidate Rudy Giuliani and Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, John McCain (39 percent) leads Mitt Romney (32 percent) in California with three days left before Super Tuesday, according to a poll released today by the Suffolk University Political Research Center. Mike Huckabee (8 percent) was a distant third, and Ron Paul (4 percent) rounded out the major choices, while 14 percent were undecided.
McCain’s strength is seen in early voting and absentee ballots, where he led Romney 45 percent-to-22 percent. Among voters very likely to cast ballots Tuesday, McCain and Romney are running neck and neck, with McCain leading Romney 37 percent-to-35 percent. However, 17 percent of likely Republican voters said they were very likely or somewhat likely to change their mind.
In 2000, about one-fourth of the California ballots cast in the presidential election came by mail. That grew to 33 percent in 2004. This year, analysts and campaign officials say it could be more than half.
“The early bird catches the worm,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. “McCain’s early advantage in California – thanks to previous wins in South Carolina and Florida – has provided him with votes in the bank and forces Romney to win remaining undecideds by a wider margin than in states with no early voting.”
McCain carried the Bay Area, which includes Santa Clara, Contra Costa and Alameda counties, by a whopping 2-to-1 margin. McCain also led marginally in the north central, south and Los Angeles areas. Romney carried Orange County. Romney also carried voters ages 18-to-45 by a 43 percent-28 percent margin statewide. McCain carried middle-age and older voters.
“Without record-breaking numbers of younger registered Republicans showing up and a high Orange County turnout, Romney may come up a bit short,” said Paleologos.
Romney was the debate winner, according to the Suffolk University Research Center poll; 37 percent of likely voters said they were most impressed by Romney, while 25 percent said McCain. However, only 40 percent of respondents statewide said they watched the Wednesday-night debate at the Ronald Reagan library, while 59 percent said they did not.
Asked who would be the next president, those surveyed predicted John McCain (29 percent) regardless of whom they personally supported. He was followed by Hillary Clinton (14 percent), Barack Obama (13 percent) and Mitt Romney (8 percent).
In other Suffolk University findings, the economy (34 percent) was the most important issue to Californians, followed closely by illegal immigration (31 percent), terrorism (17 percent) and the war in Iraq (13 percent).
The Suffolk University poll was conducted Thursday, Jan. 31, and Friday, Feb. 1, 2008. The margin of error on the statewide survey of 500 is +/- 4.38 percent at a 95 percent level of confidence. All respondents from the statewide survey were likely Republican voters in the California Presidential Primary on Feb. 5. Marginals and 72 pages of cross-tabulation data will be posted on the Suffolk University Political Research Center Web site on Feb. 4. For more information, contact David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, at 781-290-9310. Suffolk is scheduled to release a separate California poll of likely Democratic voters and California bellwether analysis information on Sunday, Feb. 3.
BOSTON -- Suffolk University Students will work as exit pollsters in Boston on “Super Tuesday.”
“Our students will be conducting a trial-run of an exit poll of Boston voters,” said Assistant Professor of Government Rachael V. Cobb. “They will ask voters a series of questions about whom they voted for, their demographic characteristics, and their satisfaction with the voting experience.”
Thirty Suffolk University students will be involved on Feb. 5. Most of the students will be at five polling locations in and around the Boston area, while some students will be on campus coordinating the effort.
“The purpose of this trial run is to get a handle on the logistical features of running an exit poll,” said Cobb. “The exceptional part about our exit poll is that we’re conducting it in four languages ... English, Chinese, Vietnamese, and Spanish.”
The students have attended training sessions, taught by Professor Cobb, who hopes that this community endeavor will promote the importance of civic engagement.
“We plan to expand our project to include as many of the polling locations in Boston as possible in the September 16, 2008, Massachusetts Primary Election, and the November 4, 2008 General Election,” said Cobb.
Suffolk University partnered with the city of Boston to recruit and train students as poll workers for Election Day 2006 through a $10,000 grant from the Center for Election Integrity, based at Cleveland State University in Ohio. Suffolk University also piloted the Center’s guidebook outlining how to effectively mobilize student poll workers.
“It was wonderful to be partnering with the city of Boston on that exciting and educational project,” said Cobb. “Through participation in that project, students learned how democracy actually works, and it engaged them on the importance of civic and volunteer participation in their communities.”
U.S. – Poland Relations: New Business Opportunities
BOSTON – Suffolk University’s Sawyer Business School and WorldBoston will present a discussion, “U.S. - Poland Relations: New Business Opportunities,” from 12:15-2 p.m. Friday, Feb. 8, 2008, at the Omni Parker House, 60 School St., Boston.
The guest speaker will be Victor Ashe, U.S. Ambassador to Poland, and the discussion will center on investment opportunities in Poland and business relations between the United States and Poland.
“Global leadership is at the center of the Sawyer Business School’s curriculum,” said William J. O’Neill, Jr., dean of the Business School. “We are dedicated to providing students with the highest quality business educational experience possible to prepare them to compete more effectively in the global economy. Our partnerships with organizations such as WorldBoston assist us greatly in this effort.”
WorldBoston, a non-profit organization that promotes greater understanding of international affairs, focuses on educational outreach and providing professional networking opportunities.
“Hosting distinguished speakers such as U.S. Ambassador Ashe gives our members and the Greater Boston community a tremendous opportunity to connect with the world beyond their offices, homes and classrooms,” said WorldBoston Executive Director Bill Clifford.
Panelists include: John McCaslin, commercial counselor, American Embassy, Warsaw; Roman Rewald, chairman, American Chamber of Commerce in Poland; Pawel Wojciechowski, president, Polish Information and Foreign Investment Agency; Sebastian Mikosz, secretary general, International Group of Chambers of Commerce; Henryka Bochniarz, president, Polish Confederation of Private Employers LEWIATAN; Col. Stanley Prusinski, chief, Office of Defense Cooperation, American Embassy, Warsaw; and Zofia Sobiepanek-Kukuryka, commercial specialist, U.S Commercial Service, American Embassy, Warsaw.
To register for “U.S. - Poland Relations – New Business Opportunities,” please call 617-570-4801. For event details, visit www.suffolk.edu/poland.
In addition to Suffolk University’s Sawyer Business School and WorldBoston, event sponsors include U.S. Commercial Service, PANO (Polish American Networking Organization), and White Eagle, the largest Polish newspaper published in North America.
The U.S. Commercial Service is the main trade promotion unit of the U.S. Department of Commerce. U.S. Commercial Service’s network of specialists in 107 U.S. cities and at U.S. Embassies in more than 80 countries assist U.S. companies in exporting and increasing U.S. sales to new global markets. To learn more about the U.S. Commercial Service, please visit http://www.export.gov/cs.
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WorldBoston is a non-partisan, non-profit organization dedicated to fostering an informed global citizenry by engaging its members and the general public in discussions about current international issues. For more than four decades, WorldBoston has facilitated international exchanges by bringing to Massachusetts each year several hundred emerging leaders and professionals from around the globe. The purpose of WorldBoston’s international visitors programs and distinguished speakers series is to foster dialogue, personal and professional networking opportunities, and lasting bonds of cross-cultural friendship and understanding.
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Suffolk University, located on Boston’s historic Beacon Hill, with international campuses in Madrid and Dakar, Senegal, is a comprehensive global institution distinguished by the teaching and the intellectual contributions of its faculty. Suffolk University offers a wide range of undergraduate and graduate programs in more than 70 areas of study. Its mission is to provide access to excellence in higher education to students of all ages and backgrounds, with strong emphasis on diversity. Suffolk has a combined enrollment of more than 9,300 full-time and part-time students at its Law School, College of Arts and Sciences and Sawyer Business School.
BOSTON – The Suffolk University Political Research Center, modeling a new election predictor module, shows John McCain (35 percent) leading Mitt Romney (33 percent) by the slimmest of margins in a key Florida Presidential Primary bellwether, Hillsborough County.
The Center’s analysis was made using a new election predictor module based on a number of statistical indices, including statewide polling and bellwether geographic areas, first employed with today’s GOP Primary in Florida.
The results from Hillsborough County, located in the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater Metropolitan Statistical Area, almost identically matched the findings from a Suffolk University Florida Republican statewide poll released yesterday, which showed McCain (30 percent) leading Romney (27 percent) by 3 percent. (see attached release)
“At the outset it appears that as Hillsborough goes, so goes the state of Florida,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. “If Candidate A gets 35 percent in Hillsborough, Candidate A gets close to 35 percent in the state of Florida.”
The last two times a non-incumbent was on a presidential preference ballot in Florida, this bellwether area mirrored the exact order of finish statewide of the top three vote-getters in each party.
In addition, the first-, second- and third-place finishers of Hillsborough County were within 4 percent of the 1-2-3 finishers statewide from both election cycles. A brief historical summary follows:
| Primary | Hillsborough County | State of Florida |
| 1988 1-2-3 |
Bush 59% |
Bush 62% Dole 21% Robertson 11% |
| 2000 1-2-3 | Bush 73% Dole 21% Keyes 4% |
Bush 74% Dole 20% Keyes 5% |
| 2008 Bellwether | McCain 35% Romney 33% Giuliani 18% |
Hillsborough County includes Plant City, Tampa and Temple Terrace as well as 45 unincorporated communities, 30 of which are census designated and 15 of which are not.
The first-of-its-kind analysis also showed that Rudy Giuliani led all of his rivals among those who had already voted absentee or early in Hillsborough County. Among those who had already voted, Giuliani (32 percent) led Romney (26 percent), McCain (19 percent), Huckabee (10 percent), Paul (7 percent) and Thompson (7 percent).
“Hillsborough County and indeed, the state of Florida, seems to be a tale of two elections: one marked by strong Giuliani and Romney support early and tomorrow’s election marked by McCain and Romney.”
On Jan. 8, 2008, the Suffolk University Political Research Center’s New Hampshire Presidential Primary bellwether towns – Kingston and Sandown – predicted a Clinton win in the Democratic Primary, while no other leading indicator in the country had Clinton winning. The bellwether analysis also was used successfully by the Center in both the 2006 Gubernatorial Democratic Primary and General Elections in Massachusetts.
The Suffolk University bellwether ID interviewed 340 likely Republican voters from Hillsborough County who had decided or already voted for one of the Republican candidates. A random sample of 3,000 Hillsborough County registered Republican households was selected for the execution of the ID interviews by live telephone call. For more information, please contact David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, at 781-290-9310.
Suffolk University Poll Shows Race Fluid, with Undecided Voters and Soft Candidate Support
BOSTON – With the Florida Republican Primary just one day away, John McCain (30 percent) is the slight Florida front-runner. Mitt Romney (27 percent) trails but is within the poll’s statistical margin of error, according to a new survey of likely Republican voters released early this morning by the Political Research Center at Boston’s Suffolk University.
Rudy Giuliani (13 percent), the front-runner for most of 2007, is now in third place ahead of Mike Huckabee (11 percent). Lagging behind were Ron Paul (4 percent) and Alan Keyes (1 percent), while 16 percent of likely voters were undecided or refused to respond. In addition to the high undecided number, more than a third said they were somewhat likely or very likely to change their mind before voting Tuesday.
“The race is very fluid, and John McCain just keeps on going. He is fighting businessman Mitt Romney’s attempt to secure Florida as another electoral acquisition,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. “The difference between winning and losing tomorrow may rest with McCain’s recent endorsements from two key statewide Republicans over the weekend: Senator Mel Martinez and Governor Charlie Crist.”
McCain appears to have a higher percentage of committed voters. Seventy-two percent of McCain voters said they were unlikely to change their mind before Tuesday compared with 68 percent for Romney, 66 percent for Huckabee, and 64 percent for Giuliani. [See page 29 of cross-tabulation data]
Geographically, McCain and Romney ran virtually dead even in except in the southern part of the state, home to a large Hispanic population, where McCain (37 percent) led Romney (25 percent). Women were key to McCain’s margin there. [See page 94 of cross-tabs]
Native Floridians gave McCain his biggest lead, compared to those transplanted from other states. Among likely Republican voters born in Florida, McCain led Romney 33 percent-to-15 percent.
When likely voters were asked who would be the next president of the United States, regardless of whom they personally supported and including candidates of both parties, McCain topped the list with 24 percent, followed by Romney (19 percent) and Hillary Clinton (13 percent).
The Suffolk University poll also found that the economy is central to Sunshine State Republicans. From among four listed issues, 44 percent chose the economy as the most important issue facing the country, followed by terrorism (20 percent), illegal immigration (18 percent), and the war in Iraq (13 percent).
The Suffolk University poll was conducted from Jan. 25 to Jan. 27, 2008. The margin of error on the statewide survey of 400 is +/- 4.90 percent at a 95 percent level of confidence. Suffolk is scheduled to release separate bellwether analysis information on Tuesday, Jan. 29. All respondents from the statewide survey and bellwether tracking were likely Republican voters in the Florida presidential primary on Tuesday, Jan. 29. Marginals and 110 pages of cross-tabulation data are available on the Suffolk University Political Research Center Web site: www.suffolk.edu/research/18108.html. For more information, please contact David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, at 781-290-9310.
Suffolk Law School’s Juvenile Justice Center: Do these Laws Make Schools Safer?
BOSTON -- The Juvenile Justice Center of Suffolk University Law School and Rep. James Fagan (D-Taunton), will host a conference on the state’s hotly debated school expulsion laws, which impact the juvenile justice system, schools, and the state’s dropout rate.
The conference, “Time to Stop & Reconsider: Are the Massachusetts’ School Expulsion Laws Really Making Massachusetts Schools Safer?” will explore the operation and impact of the state’s expulsion laws. Nine statewide organizations are co-sponsoring the conference, which will take place from 9 a.m. to 1 p.m. Thursday, Jan. 24, 2008, at Suffolk Law School, 120 Tremont St., Boston.
“I think it’s time to recognize the collateral damage from our school expulsion laws,” said Isabel Raskin, an education attorney at Suffolk Law School. “These laws send unsupervised youth out on the streets. These youth are denied education and alienated from their communities, escalating both juvenile crime and the state’s dropout rate.”
The conference will feature three panels:
“It’s time we look at what is happening here,” said Fagan. “In my experience, schools are using the zero-tolerance laws and expulsions as a fig leaf to cover a dirty secret: They don’t want to deal with certain kids, and it’s easier to expel them. This is not in the commonwealth’s interest, and it’s time to face it.”
For more information on the conference, including a program, call the Suffolk University Juvenile Justice Center at 617-305-3200.
BOSTON — Suffolk University will host a day of events as part of the Jan. 31, 2008, Focus the Nation teach-in on global warming solutions.
Bill McKibben, a global warming expert and best-selling author of The End of Nature, will deliver the keynote address. Additional presenters will be: